If you're on the sidelines, at least get ready...

If you're on the sidelines to buy a home, there are things you can do to be ready when you do get back in the game.

Improve your credit score to qualify for the best mortgage rate available which are reserved for those with the highest scores.  Get a copy of your current credit reports from all three of the main credit bureaus: Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian.  You can get them at AnnualCreditReport.com without paying for them.

While you won't see a credit score on these reports, you will see a history of your available credit accounts.  According to the Federal Trad Commission, one in five people have at least one error on one of their credit reports which can lower your score or increase the cost or likelihood of receiving new credit.  Identify and correct these mistakes. 

Explain in writing the error in the report and include copies of documents that support your dispute.  Both the credit bureau and the business that supplied the information must correct the information that is in error.  There will not be a fee to correct it.  You can get specific info for the process on each credit reporting companies' website and from the FTC Consumer Advice.

There is a term call "credit utilization" which describes how much of your available credit on each revolving account is currently being used.  If the limit on one card were $10,000 and you had a $5,000 balance, the utilization ratio is 50%.  Amounts above 30% can negatively impact your credit score even if you do pay the balance each month.

Any delinquent items that may appear on your credit report need to be cleared up.  Regardless of whether there is a legitimate reason, it needs to be explained to the credit bureau.  Beginning in 2023, medical collections less than $500 will no longer be reported on consumer credit reports.

Continue to save for a down payment because mortgages less than 80% of loan-to-value require mortgage insurance which increases the monthly payment.  The exception to the rule is for VA loans which do not require it.  The cost of mortgage insurance could add 0.5% to 2% or more to the payment.

Lower your debt-to-income ratio by paying off installment loans for cars, boats, and other things.

While there are legitimate credit repair services available, you may be able to get excellent advice from a trusted mortgage professional.  You'll eventually want to be pre-approved before you start looking at homes.  Your real estate agent can make a recommendation to connect you with someone who will get you ready to get back into the game.

Negotiating Your Position

The seller wants the most for their home and the buyer wants to pay the least possible.  From the very beginning of the homebuying process, there are adversarial positions between the principals.  If you happen to be in a multi-offer situation, it just complicates things further.

Then, there are the emotions that tend to cloud the decision making on both sides of the transaction.  Sellers have lived in the home for years, possibly, with cherished family experiences and maybe, having put considerable effort and money into capital improvements.

On the buyer side, they may have lost out on several homes due to competing offers and now, this year, interest rates have doubled, and the discretionary funds required to pay for a home could be causing cuts in their budget in other areas.

A year ago, buyers were waiving contingencies for financing, appraisals, inspections, and other things just to be competitive.  Today, to make the home more affordable with the higher mortgage rates, buyers need the seller to make financial concessions but who is going to make their case to the seller for them?

The role of a third-party negotiator played by the real estate professionals has always been valuable to the success of the transaction but now, it may even be essential.  Sellers enjoyed an extraordinary market in their favor for the past two years with incredible appreciation and so many buyers chasing so few homes, the sellers were able to write their own ticket.

Inflation and mortgage rates have put the brakes on the market, eliminating over 15 million mortgage-ready buyers.  The buyers who are still in the market need to be cautious, so they don't overextend themselves and overpay for a home.

The agents can assist both the buyers and sellers in seeing things in an objective way that reflects the current market and not the way it was a year ago.  All parties must be reasonable and not expect too much.  They need to consider facts and not feelings.

Negotiating the sale or purchase of a home is a competition; for one person to get something, someone must give something up.  If a person doesn't feel comfortable with this, it is important to work with an agent who can bring their skills to the table on your behalf.  As your advocate, they can champion your position and put transactions together that would not have been possible if it were left to the principals alone.

Negotiation skills are acquired through training and experience.  When interviewing an agent, ask them what role negotiation plays in their marketing plan if you're a seller and purchase plan, if you are a buyer.  An agent who cannot defend their position in the transaction may not be the right person to defend yours.

Buy Now, Refinance Later

The dilemma facing would-be buyers today is to wait until things settle down or move ahead in this unsettling economic environment.  More specifically, the question should be, what are you waiting to settle down: mortgage rates, or prices or both?

Mortgage rates haven't been this high since 2002, so it could be considered plausible that the high rates are temporary.  That leads to the question of how long before they do start coming down.  If we look back further, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, dating back to April 1971 is 7.81%, so the current rate is lower than the 50-year average.

The other variable is waiting for prices to come down.  That one is probably not as likely to happen.  We have seen some softening of prices for homes on the market which is due to a decline in sales based on affordability and the resulting increase in inventory. 

Sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November which is down 35.4% from one year ago, conversely, inventory has increased to 3.3 months from 2.1 months one year ago according to the NAR Housing Snapshot of Existing Home Sales.

While listing prices may be coming down, sales prices are still rising from the same month a year ago.  The National Association of REALTORS� reported the median sales price for November 2022 is up 3.5% from November 2021.

Homes are expected to continue to appreciate and not come down in value albeit at a much lower rate than was seen in 2021, and even currently in 2022.  Historically, homes have appreciated at 4% annually on a national basis. 

Nationally, the NAR reports 42% of homes are selling at or above list price while 58% of homes are selling for less than list price.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS� at their recent annual conference, forecast home price appreciation for 2022 at +10%, for 2023 at +1% and 2024 at +5%. 

Some experts are calling for a decrease in prices.  Ivy Zelman, of Zelman & Associates, expects national home prices to fall 4% in 2023 and 5% in 2024.  Goldman Sachs is expecting a 5-10% decrease in home prices from its peak. Fannie Mae is expecting a 1.5% drop in home prices for 2023.  Freddie Mac predicts a 0.2% decrease in values.

Some consumers are anticipating another wave of foreclosures like the Housing Crisis in the Great Recession of 2008.  While the number has increased, it is not expected to reach anywhere near those previous levels.

Homeowners facing difficulties with the labor market and affordability have a significant advantage over those during the housing crisis over a decade ago.  Homeowners currently have record amounts of equity which give them options to borrow against the equity or to sell the home for more than is owed.

Returning to the dilemma facing many would-be buyers, "Wait until things settle down or forge ahead now?"  Being able to afford a mortgage at today's rates certainly factors into the decision.  If inflation is brought under control and rates do return to "normal", or at least the new normal, a buyer would be able to refinance the home at the then, current rates.

Home price appreciation has been close or beaten inflation in each of the past five decades.

Decade	Home Prices	Consumer Prices
70's	9.9%	7.2%
80's	5.5%	5.6%
90's	4.1%	3.0%
00's	2.3%	2.6%
10's	4.9%	1.8%
20 + 21	12%	3%
Source ... NAR & Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

First time homebuyers represent 26% of sales in 2022 down from 50%, its high in 2009.  This is the lowest it has been since NAR started the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers in 1981.  Desire to own a home is the prevalent reason 62% of first-time buyers cited.

Holding onto cash during high inflationary times is not good because the purchasing power of the cash dwindles because the same dollar is able to buy less.  Moving money into hard assets, like real estate, allows the person to benefit from the inflation on a large asset.  The leverage from using borrowed funds to finance the purchase creates leverage that additionally works in favor of the buyer.

Download our updated Buyers Guide and connect with your agent to discuss your options.